After the ups and downs that the 2020 NFL season has brought us, we've finally made it to some normalcy. We have a Super Bowl in February with fans in the stands, between two legendary quarterbacks that ought to be a fantastic matchup.
I will preface this betting segment with a little story. Back in November, I placed a +800 bet on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to win the Super Bowl. If it comes in, this bet will net me $1,000. That being said, I'm hedged in this game to where I cannot lose money. So I want to make sure that is stated up front before you go through these bets. The benefit to this, is that I don't care who wins the game, although I do need it to stay close to maximize my profits. This has given me an opportunity to look at the prop bets with no side in mind, just my gut feeling.
For what it's worth, I do like and I have bet [102] Tampa Bay +3.5 [-120] as well as the futures bet and Kansas City ML. So I'd net the most amount of money if Kansas City wins, but the Buccaneers cover, so we'll root for a close game.
So let's dive into some prop bets:
[10103] Coin Flip HEADS [-115]
- Let's be honest, this is a coin flip bet here, but who doesn't love winning (or losing,
but we won't talk about that) before the game even kicks off. But thanks to a certain
person who leaked a video of the National Anthem rehearsal, this is the only pre-
game bet that is currently on the board. So let's bet it!
[10274] KC/TB Field Goal or Safety 1st Score [+160]
- I think this game is going to start slowly and getting plus money on a field goal here
is worth the shot. Both field goal kickers are solid, so they're not missing if they
have an attempt.
[101] KC/TB Over 10 - 1st Quarter [-125]
- This is somewhat of a hedge against my bet above, but likely will push. I think we'll
land on 10 points at the end of the first quarter, so if this line has moved to 10.5,
stay away from it. But if you can still get it at 10, I think it's a fair bet, even if it
pushes. This game could also still start with a field goal and we still get to the 1QO.
[11087] Tom Brady Rushing Yards Over 0.5 [+135]
- This one is pretty simple, I think Tom Brady has a rushing attempt / QB sneak for a
a touchdown or a first down at some point during the game. I also think the Chiefs
win, so there's not going to be a kneel down by Brady.
[12371] Ronald Jones Over 34.5 Rushing Yards [-145]
- I think if Tampa Bay is going to hang with the Chiefs, they can't get into a shootout,
therefore, Tampa Bay is going to have to run the ball and Ronald Jones has the
ability to break a long one, so I feel pretty comfortable that he can go over here.
[101] KC/TB Over 10.5 - 3rd Quarter [-105]
- I thought this was a fair price for a 3rd quarter line. I think Kansas City can get 14
by themselves in the 3rd quarter after halftime adjustments are made.
[12325] Darrel Williams Rushing Yards Under 26.5 [+120]
- This one is pretty cut and dry, I don't think he's going to get there and I'm getting
plus money, so why not bet it?
[11029] Patrick Mahomes Rushing Yards Over 19.5 [-130]
- Mahomes is going to have opportunities to make plays with his feet due to the TB
defensive line giving him some pressure. So I think (barring any exaggerated -7 yard
late game kneel downs like last year) he gets the over here.
[12231] Byron Pringle Receiving Yards Under 10.5 [+100]
- Some of you may be asking "Who?" - But yes, his prop is out there and he actually
has had some playing time, but that was only because Sammy Watkins has been
out. Watkins looks cleared to play, so I think Pringle won't be utilized.
[12179] Travis Kelce to Score a TD [-175]
- I know it's a lot of juice to pay, but come on, Kelce is getting in the end zone. If he
is denied a touchdown by the Buccaneers, hat's off to them. But I don't see it.